A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."